Blog

London Session

It may have been the last day of the year, but it still had some action - thin volume or not.  There were some decent breaks.

EUR/USD fell below the 1.41 level and dropped some -140 pips during the London session, towards the 1.3950 zone.  The 1.3900 level now looks like the next critical support level and could see further falls if that breaks.

EUR/JPY fell too, although not as bad, down -80 pips to 126.30/40.  The world stock markets flurried a little, so this may have helped the pair around this level.

USD/JPY just channelled along in the 90/91 band, moves related to US short-term yields.

The New York session should see some swift moves on light volumes as well. It all shuts off at 9pm UK time. There is some news in the US coming today - the jobless claims and crude oil inventories show see some reaction in the Forex USD pairs.

Happy New Year to all!

Asia Session

On this last trading day the US dollar tried to gain a little ground against the Yen. Not much, but it did move about 20 pips. Not sure what 2009 will bring.  The US is in a mess, but the Japanese want to weaken their Yen.  Interesting times ahead.

EUR/USD kicked off around the 1.4050 level, and then the Euros started being bought again - up to 1.4147 - then a pull back to a session low of 1.4057.  It was still thin volume. The Euro edged up again to end near the 1.4080 level.

USD/JPY. The US dollar was a little stronger against the Yen, after an early low of 90.15 moved up to a session high of about 90.43, before pulling bcak to a session end of about 90.35.

EUR/JPY was higher again after kicking off at a low of around 126.85, then ran up to 127.77, and pulled back to the 127.20 level by the end of the session.

In fact, most Yen pairs moved higher during the Asian session. The Yen has had a strong year, which hasn’t been so welcome to their export product costs.

It is worth a mention that tomorrow, New Year’s Day, will be the 10th anniversary of the Euro currency.  It will also see Slovakia joining, too, officially becoming the 16th member of the Euro zone.

So, that’s it finished for 2008 in the Far East, then.  What a year.  I think this year will be remembered as a bit of a nightmare, but we do wonder if 2009 will see much, muych more turmoil around the world.  We wish you all a happy and profitable 2009.

New York Session

The New York session saw some minor excitement early doors, but soon calmed down. Thin voilumes and the pubs and bars opening, we think.

Wall Street had a little flurry, up some 2.5% despite some weak economic data. The worst news was the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (CCI), which dropped to a record low of 38.0 in December, down from 44.7 figure for November. News that the labour differential collapsed to something like a 7% unemployment figure for December didn’t help.

EUR/USD was lower despite some poor US data news, falling some -30 pips towards the 1.4070 level by the time the New York session was coming to a close. 

EUR/JPY also fell despite the stock market moving up. It was about -20 pips lower in New York trading around the 127.00 support level area. 

USD/JPY was fairly non-eventful, staying around the 90.30 level. This 90.00 to 91.00 channel seems to be comfortable right now for the pair.
News out tomorrow includes initial jobless and Crude Oil inventories.  That should round off 2008 with some action.

London Session

It was still thin volume during the London session, even though there seem to be a few traders around. The only news from Europe worth mentioning was the French housing new builds, which was a little better than expected. The -14.4% result for a poor 3-month run-rate for November, with a -20.6% result for October bettered. The ECB’s Mersch comments were taken positively, which helped give the Euro some weighted support. The Euro currency considered a ’stabilizer and protector’ during this financial turmoil. 

EUR/USD moved up about 80 pips during the session, trading around the 1.4170/80 level just before New York kicked off. A break of the 1.4220/30 area looks like we could see higher levels, but a break below the 1.4130/20 level could see some lows.

The Euro’s strength also showed through against the yen as EUR/JPY added about 70 pips in London trading towards the 1.2780/90 zone. 

European bourses were up about 1% at last look and while the overall correlation between stocks and FX has weakened, this bid to risk assets likely still provides a short-term base for EUR/JPY near the 127 mark. 

USD/JPY was fairly steady during the London session around 90.20/30. We expect the pair to continue to follow around here, with a 90.00 support level and 90.50 resistance and break level. Use 90.50 as a pivot for upside.

Asia Session

The dollar took more pressure during the Asian session.  The current Israel/Gaza situation seems to be weighing on the dollar even more. Concerns over oil etc come in to play when there is trouble in the middle east as the US is so dependent on oil.

Oil - The price of the black stuff rose to US$40.30 bbl.  The Euro seems to be following any oil price moves.

EUR/USD kicked off the session near its session lows of 1.3916, then moved up to its highs near 1.4135 as the session move on, meaning a 1% loss in dollar value.

The dollar faired no better against the Yen, either. USD/JPY fell from early highs of 90.95 to bottom out at about 90.24 by the end of the session end. It is worth noting that Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished its trading year down a staggering 42% over the calender year.

The Dollar fell against Sterling, too. GBP/USD marched up from 1.4396 to just over 1.4539.

The Swiss Franc followed, with USD/CHF falling from 1.0615 to 1.0505.

The Dollar fell against 14 of the 16 pairs considered the most traded currencies.

Volume remains thin, so be careful.

New York Session

A surpise, really.  Yes, the unexpected.  The New York session brought some decent action, despite the lack of economic data or events.  Everyone was looking for breaks, it seems. 

EUR/USD collapsed about -300 pips in New York trading, with the move above 1.43 proven to be unsustainable on thin trading. By the time the session closed the pair was around the 1.3970 level. The low of 1.3820 the week before Xmas looks like the next critical support mark.  If we break that then 1.3500 could soon follow, we think.

EUR/JPY was down -230 points to the 1.2650 area after the attempted rally through the 1.2900 level eventually failed. 

USD/JPY did look at that massive 90.00 level, but look and nudge is all it did. 

GBP/USD continued to fall, down some -120 pips to the 1.4480/90 area.  Still looking like lower will follow whilst we are under 1.4550, and a break under the 1.4450/40 level could see some nasty falls.

With no economic news today, it was technical trading, breakouts and support levels that were being eyed, with the same expected over night in Asia trading.

There were two trades today.  These were called to subscribers. 

___

Trade 1.

EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+141 pips)

Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 128.04
Stop level: 129.30
Target level: 126.47
Closed: 126.63 (+141 pips)

The pair made a low of 126.49, just couple of pips above the target. After failing to reach the target a few times the trade was closed at 126.63.

___

Trade 2.

EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+132 pips) - target reached

Open Short: EUR/USD @ 1.4252
Stop level: 1.4320
Target level: 1.4120
Closed: 1.4120 (+132 pips) - target reached

___

Do you get calls like that - as they happen?

Come and join the REAL Traders.  www.marketbytes.com.

___

London Session

There was some activity this morning in London, with some surprised of the movement during this holiday period. The US Dollar fell against the Euro, but was higher against other major currencies.  No real mainland European economic data today, except some Italian news on business confidence - it sank to 66.6 in December from a 71.6 the prior month.  The strong Euro rallied anyway, with EUR/USD up 35 pips towards the 1.4300 level.  This morning’s session high was just above the 1.4360 level, with profit taking looking certain if we continue towards the 1.4400 level.

Here in the UK the data was poor. Housing equity withdrawal fell to -£5.7 bln in Q3 from -£2.0 bln the previous month. 

GBP/USD fell more than -110 points to the 1.4640/50 zone.  An equal Euro looks more likely, as the EUR/GBP pair got ever closer to parity, almost reaching the 0.98 mark. 

The price of the black stuff was up a dollar to just over the US$40 bbl level again.

USD/CAD moved up despite the oil move, up about 100 pips during the London session and was at about 1.2200 by the time New York came to life.

No economic events are due during the New York session. Volumes should be light, but watch for any breaks.

Asia Session

The US Dollar continued its poor run. Everyone seems to be selling the dollar, thinking the US econoomy can only get worse.

The EUR/USD kicked off the week at 140.60, and never looked back. The level rose to a high of around 1.4173. The pair then pulled back to about 1.4160.

USD/JPY saw further pressure on the greenback, with a 90.73 high turning to a sub 90.50 low.  Not massive, but negative all the same.

EUR/JPY pushed up from 127.30 to just near 128.40.

The Swissie looked safe, with CHF gaining some interest. USD/CHF fell from 1.0677 to 1.0553.

USD/CAD was fell quickly, down from 1.2207 to around 1.2087.
Don’t forget that Japan will be on holiday tomorrow. 

Be careful, and watch for breaks.  Happy Trading.

London Session

London trading was thin, and a bit lack-lustre.  Most people on holiday, it seems. Santa will be here tomorrow night, don’t forget. Anyway, Eurozone data was fairly positive, although this didn’t cause much of a stir on the Forex markets. French consumer spending was higher than expected - up by +0.3% in November, whilst the market was actually looking for a small fall. There had been a small fall in October, but the annual growth rate actually came in exactly as expected at a +1.0% annual run-rate. 

Comments from ECB member Bini Smaghi were that he sees inflation falling very quickly, down to below 2% by the middle of next year.  This will likely ramp up interest rate cut expectations as inflation loses its strength in the argument.

EUR/USD was stagnant - marking time, almost, near the 1.40 level as New York kicked off.  This does look like a short-term pivot, with resistance around 1.4020/30 and support then near 1.3950 next.

The yen crosses were also like watching paint dry, with any move of a spiky volatile nature, with EUR/JPY running a 70 pip channel, top to bttom. The pair ended around a -30 pip level during the London session, ending around the 126.00/10 zone. 

USD/JPY seemed like it was in a coma. About -20 pips to the psychological 90.00/10 area.  With US data coming out over the next two days, we would not be surprised to see the price action ratchet up in the yen crosses as risk appetite is re-priced. 

Looking at support and resistance levels, we would say USD/JPY - 89.00 support and 91.00 resistance, whilst EUR/JPY - 124.00 support and 127.00 resistance.